TAC Foresight 2026: POTENTIAL SECURITY THREATS IN THE WORLD IN 2026 AND NATO'S STANCE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: FORESIGHT 2026

Comprehensive Strategic Assessment of the Evolving Global Security Landscape

Published by: The Turkish Atlantic Council & The Hariciye Center for Foreign Policy and Security Studies

Overview

Foresight 2026 presents a rigorous yet realistic analysis of what will shape the transatlantic agenda in the coming year. We are passing through a period defined by the erosion of established international norms and the near-paralysis of multilateral institutions, most notably the UN Security Council.

1. NATO's Institutional Transformation

The 2025 Hague Summit was a watershed moment; Allies signed off on a historic 5% defense spending target. The Alliance is undergoing a profound conceptual shift. Relationships are no longer purely transactional. NATO is adapting to a new era requiring continuous adaptation. The transition toward deeper, value-driven cohesion to overcome internal debates regarding burden-sharing and political unity. Defense strategies are being re-conceptualized from the ground up to meet modern threats.

2. The Militarization of Space

Space is no longer a sanctuary; it has rapidly evolved into a critical risk domain. The dangerous proliferation of Anti-Satellite (ASAT) systems, the rise of highly maneuverable co-orbital space assets, and the integration of kinetic and non-kinetic threats challenging orbital security are assessed in detail.

3. The New Balkans and European Security

The Balkans have transitioned from a buffer zone to the direct front line of European security. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia war has fundamentally altered regional dynamics. Strengthening democratic institutions against external influence is vital. A specific emphasis is placed on Turkey's strategic position as a balancing regional power essential for stability.

4. Crises in the Middle East and Global Order

The aftermath of operations in Gaza, state-building challenges in Syria, and the escalation of Israel-Iran tensions are all assessed. The fragmentation of order while ad hoc coalitions rise, and the normalization of political gains achieved through military force, stand out as disturbing trends.

5. Public Diplomacy and Strategic Communication

Narrative failures, such as those during the withdrawal from Afghanistan, are reviewed. The report seeks methods to effectively counter disinformation and establish a genuine connection with the Global South to restore eroded trust.